April US CPI preview: the potential for another inflation scare, but it could be one of the last

A potential pause in the CPI's disinflation may unnerve markets, but with it likely to fall sharply in May & June, April's report could be one of the last to do so for the current inflation cycle.

CPI and core CPI both expected to hold steady at 5.0% and 5.6% YoY respectively

In April, I forecast headline CPI growth of 5.0% — in-line with the rate recorded in March.

This comes on the back of expected MoM growth of 0.6%, which would represent another month of growth that is above its historical average. A big driver of this forecast is the expected increase in the CPI energy commodities component, after monthly average regular gasoline prices rose by 5.3% MoM.