April US CPI review: give it another couple of months

While April's CPI report didn't see much change in the annual rate of inflation, that is likely to change dramatically by June, with major disinflation likely to be imminent.

Executive summary

• Headline CPI’s YoY growth rate fell to 4.9% in April, from 5.0% in March (vs my 5.0% forecast, consensus 5.0%)

• Core CPI’s YoY growth rate fell to 5.5% in April, from 5.6% in March (vs my 5.6% forecast, consensus 5.5%)

• Used car prices grew at a very strong MoM pace that was over and above the implied change in wholesale used car prices.

• New…