US CPI Review: December 2023

While slightly hotter than forecast, December's CPI report was largely in-line with my expectations, with an in-depth review of the latest inflation data pointing to further disinflation ahead.

Executive summary

• Headline and core CPI inflation came in slightly above my forecasts for December, and even further above the consensus forecasts, which had expected relatively softer growth versus my forecasts.

• Nevertheless, a clear disinflationary trend remains, with the actual results not materially different to my forecasts (8bp variation for both he…