A roaring economy and a recession, simultaneously: the latest US jobs data is all over the shop

While the consensus appears to be that the latest US jobs data is extremely strong, a thorough analysis reveals major contradictions, with a suite of downright recessionary indicators also seen.

Executive summary

• While most market commentators and economists appear to have taken the view that the latest US jobs data paints an extremely strong picture, a deeper look at the data also reveals a suite of indicators that point to outright recessionary conditions.

• Key positive points to note, include:

  • Nonfarm payroll growth was revised far higher in Dec…