March US CPI review: the disinflationary cycle continues, but will the Fed erroneously focus on core inflation?

While headline CPI growth continues to decelerate, the exclusion of food & energy prices meant that core CPI growth rose. It would be a mistake to focus on core, as opposed to headline inflation data.

Executive summary

• US CPI growth fell from a YoY growth rate of 6.0%, to 5.0% in March.

• Core US CPI growth rose from a YoY growth rate of 5.5%, to 5.6% in March.

• Both measures were slightly below my estimates for CPI growth of 5.2% (5.2% consensus), and core CPI growth of 5.7% (5.6% consensus).

• As expected, CPI used car & truck prices rose in March but by le…