Medium-term US CPI Forecast Update

CPI growth expected to hit 2% in 2024: but not before a potentially unnerving period of stubborn growth

Overall policy backdrop remains conducive to lower inflation over time

With M2 seeing its largest fall since the Great Depression on the back of rate hikes and ongoing QT, the policy backdrop remains conducive to lower inflation. While Fed tightening has been somewhat offset by the federal government draining its TGA in 1H23 and subsequent heavy T-bill i…