November's US CPI data reveals deepening disinflation: initial thoughts

From falling new car prices to services prices, the latest CPI data provides further confirmation that disinflation is spreading, and deepening.

November CPI aggregates vs my forecasts 🔍

For the month of November, my headline US CPI forecast of 3.14% was equal to the actual result, and down from 3.35% in October.

Meanwhile, core CPI growth came in below my estimate for a second consecutive month, managing to eke out an eighth consecutive month of disinflation on a two decimal place basis.

Used car prices unexpectedly rise, new car prices unexpectedly fall 🚗

Given the prior move in wholesale prices, the seasonality in retail used car prices, and the relative levels of wholesale vs retail used car prices, I had expected used car prices to record a MoM decline for a 5th consecutive month — instead, they rose.

This has increased the gap that exists between wholesale and retail used car prices.