The US jobs market is weakening significantly

While job growth has remained strong enough to keep the unemployment rate low, signs of a significant weakening in the US employment market continue to grow.

Another jobs report, another historically low unemployment rate — this time falling to 3.4% in April. While the Fed’s aggressive tightening has meant that many have been expecting the US jobs market to imminently roll over, it’s important to remember that employment is a lagging indicator.

During the current cycle, it’s likely to be a particularly lagging indicator as many businesses experienced significant difficulty in reaching their required staffing levels, on account of enormous money printing having artificially stimulated the US economy.

Yet that doesn’t mean that employment data can’t provide important signals about turning points in the economy. One just needs to look a little deeper than the unemployment rate. When doing so, one can see that the US jobs market has been weakening significantly.

Headline job growth was relatively strong, but significant revisions were made to prior months

In April, the BLS recorded nonfarm payroll growth of 253k, which again significantly beat mar…