Underlying inflation down, but lagging CPI risks a severe recession
Key points:
Whilst I continue to expect that June was the likely high water mark for YoY CPI growth, given a low prior comparable, headline CPI remained high in September (+8.2%).
As flagged in my September CPI preview, YoY core CPI reached a new peak of 6.6% for the current high inflation cycle, as the CPI’s lagging measurement of rents continues to pl…