US CPI Preview: January 2024 (plus the impact of the CPI weight update on the 2024 outlook)

CPI disinflation is expected to continue in January, with headline CPI growth expected to fall below 3% YoY, to the slowest pace seen since March 2021.

Headline CPI growth expected to fall below 3% YoY

In what would be another major milestone in the current disinflationary cycle, I expect headline CPI growth to fall to 2.9% (2.89%) YoY in January, down significantly from the 3.4% recorded in December.

This is in-line with the consensus forecast of 2.9% and would mark the slowest rate of growth in headlin…