US CPI Preview: January 2024 (plus the impact of the CPI weight update on the 2024 outlook)

CPI disinflation is expected to continue in January, with headline CPI growth expected to fall below 3% YoY, to the slowest pace seen since March 2021.

Headline CPI growth expected to fall below 3% YoY

In what would be another major milestone in the current disinflationary cycle, I expect headline CPI growth to fall to 2.9% (2.89%) YoY in January, down significantly from the 3.4% recorded in December.

This is in-line with the consensus forecast of 2.9% and would mark the slowest rate of growth in headline CPI inflation since March 2021.

Core CPI expected to record a tenth consecutive month of disinflation

For the core CPI, I expect growth to fall to 3.7% YoY (3.68%), down from 3.9% in December.

This is in-line with the consensus forecast of 3.7% and would mark the tenth consecutive month of moderating YoY growth, to the lowest level seen since April 2021.