US CPI Preview: July 2023

For the first time since June 2022, I expect annual CPI growth to rise in July, but I forecast that the core CPI will keep moderating.

Executive summary

• For the first time since June 2022, I expect the annual rate of CPI inflation to increase, rising from 3.0% in June, to 3.2% in July (vs 3.3% consensus).

• In contrast to the expected rise in the headline CPI, I expect the core CPI to fall to 4.6% (vs 4.8% consensus), down from 4.8% in June.

• On a spot market rent adjusted basis, I expect he…