US CPI Preview: June 2023

Major additional disinflation is likely in June, with spot market rent adjusted inflation likely to fall BELOW 1%. Continuing to tighten amidst such a backdrop risks delivering a deflationary bust.

Executive summary

• I expect June’s US CPI report to deliver significant additional disinflation, resulting in the 12th consecutive month of lower annual CPI inflation.

• My forecasts are as follows:

  • Headline CPI: 3.0% vs 4.0% in May

  • Core CPI: 4.9% vs 5.3% in May

  • Headline CPI adjusted for spot market rents: 0.5% vs 1.8% in May

  • Headline core CPI adjusted for spot …