US CPI preview March 2023: forecasting a significant drop in headline CPI growth, but higher core CPI growth
As more of last year's gasoline price surge rolls out of the YoY calculation, headline CPI growth is expected to fall significantly, but core CPI inflation risks a bigger policy mistake.
Executive summary
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, I forecast MoM growth of 0.5% for the CPI and 0.6% for the core CPI.
On a YoY basis, I forecast the CPI’s growth rate to fall from 6.0% to 5.2%., and the core CPI’s growth rate to rise from 5.5%, to 5.7%.
Consensus is forecasting YoY CPI growth of 5.2% (in-line with my forecast), and core CPI growth of …