US CPI Preview: November 2023

Headline CPI growth expected to record a modest fall in November, whilst the core CPI is expected to see modest growth.

Headline CPI growth expected to fall slightly, with MoM growth again expected to be negative

I expect the headline CPI to record a small moderation in its annual growth rate in November, falling to 3.1%, from 3.2% in October. On a two decimal place basis, my forecast is for growth of 3.14%, indicating the potential for growth to also come in at a rounded 3.2%.

For the second consecutive month, MoM growth is expected to be negative. This MoM decline is again expected to be driven by the CPI energy commodities index, which comes on account of another large MoM fall in gasoline prices.

Monthly price growth is expected to be largely in-line with its historical average for a 2nd consecutive month.