US CPI Preview: September 2023

Annual headline CPI inflation is expected to be broadly flat, but core inflation is expected to record its 6th consecutive month of deceleration.

Executive summary

For September, I forecast headline CPI growth of 3.7%, unchanged from the prior month. While this is slightly above the consensus forecast of 3.6%, to two decimal places, my forecast is 3.67%, indicating that a rounded reading of 3.6%, also has a material chance of occurring.

For the core CPI, I expect annual growth of 4.1%, down from 4.…