US CPI Preview: September 2024

Another large decline in gasoline prices is expected to see annual headline CPI growth move materially lower in September, but the core CPI is anticipated to remain elevated.

Significant headline disinflation expected in September, but not on a core basis

The headline CPI is expected to record a second consecutive month of significant additional disinflation, falling to 2.3% (2.26%) YoY, from 2.5%. This is in-line with the consensus estimate.

Given that much of this anticipated moderation is expected to again be driven by the …