US CPI Review: July 2023

As expected, annual headline CPI inflation fell in July, while core CPI inflation moderated - I currently expect the same to occur in August.

Executive summary

• For the first time since June 2022, headline CPI inflation saw an increase in its annual growth rate, rising from 3.0% in June, to 3.2% (3.18%) in July.

  • Headline CPI: 3.2% (3.18%) vs my estimate of 3.2% (3.16%) vs consensus 3.3%

• Meanwhile, core CPI growth moderated for the fourth consecutive month, falling from 4.8% in June, to 4.7% in Ju…