US CPI Review: June 2023 (w/flash July estimates)

As expected, inflation saw a sharp decline in June, with even core services prices now showing clear disinflation.

Executive summary

• For June, the US came in as follows:

  • Headline CPI: 3.0% vs my 3.0% forecast vs 3.1% consensus

  • Core CPI: 4.8% vs my 4.9% forecast vs 5.0% consensus

  • CPI adjusted for spot market rent: 0.5% vs my 0.5% forecast

  • Core CPI adjusted for spot market rent: 1.6% vs my 1.7% forecast

• While the CPI continued to decline in June, it wasn’t a result of used …