US CPI Review & Flash Forecasts: core CPI expected to hit a key milestone in December
Disinflation continued to strengthen in November, with all key price categories showing a moderation in price pressures - a key core CPI milestone is now on the verge of being hit.
Executive summary
Disinflation continued to strengthen in November, with all key price categories (durables, nondurables and services) showing a moderation in price pressures.
While used car prices have been recording YoY deflation for an extended period, new vehicle prices have also begun to show material disinflation, with a second consecutive MoM decline seen in November.
In addition to another significant decline in gasoline prices, apparel prices saw a record-breaking decline in November.
Many services categories saw another month of material disinflation, with overall adjusted core services price growth seeing a second consecutive month of relatively more moderate growth.
While base effects are expected to result in annual headline CPI growth rising in December, the core CPI is expected to record a ninth consecutive month of moderating YoY growth and mark an important disinflationary milestone in the process.