US CPI Review: September 2023

Both the CPI & core CPI were in-line with my forecasts, as durables and nondurables prices saw broad disinflation, but services prices remained elevated.

Executive summary

In September, headline CPI inflation was 3.7%, unchanged from August. While this was slightly above the consensus forecast, it was in-line with my forecast.

Core CPI inflation was 4.1%, down from 4.3% in August. This was in-line with my forecast and consensus expectations and marked the sixth consecutive month of decelerating annual growth.

Note that unless otherwise stated, my CPI analysis is conducted using non-seasonally adjusted data.

On a spot market rent adjusted basis, the headline CPI came in at 1.0%, unchanged from last month and in-line with my forecast. On a core basis, spot market rent adjusted inflation fell to 0.7%, from 0.9% in August (versus my estimate of 0.8%).