US Jobs Report Review: July 2023
US Jobs Report Review: July 2023
The great employment market moderation continues, but for how much longer?
Executive summary
The unemployment rate dipped for the second consecutive month in June, falling to 3.5%.
Nevertheless, nonfarm payroll growth continues to moderate, with 3-month moving average growth falling to 218k in July, the lowest since January 2021, while the 3-month annualised growth rate fell to 1.7%.
Lower nonfarm payrolls growth has been driven by private payrolls, with 6-month moving average growth in government payrolls coming off a post-COVID record in June.
After diverging over recent months, the household & establishment surveys largely converged in July — this came as a result of growth in the establishment survey falling towards the household survey.
For the second consecutive month, the Economics Uncovered Cyclical Employment Index was YoY negative, weakening to -0.5% in July — the index turned YoY negative four and five months before the 2001 recession and GFC, respectively.
Average weekly hours fell back down to the pre-COVID lower bound in July, with total private hour…