US Jobs Report Review: a key recession indicator has been triggered
US cyclical employment growth ex-manufacturing has turned YoY negative - history says that a US recession may now only be months away.
Executive Summary
The US unemployment rate fell from 3.7% in May to 3.6% in June — this marks the third time since August 2022 that the US unemployment rate hit 3.7%, only to move lower in the following month.
Total nonfarm payrolls grew at the slowest monthly pace since December 2020 in June.
The extent of the recent moderation in job growth has been mask…