When will the Fed deliver the first rate cut?
Despite Fed assurances that rate cuts aren't on the horizon, with real rates likely to soon hit significant levels, the jobs market is likely to decide whether rates are cut in 2H23.
While the Fed continues to postulate that it doesn’t see any rate cuts during 2023, with the CPI likely to see major disinflation over the next two months (I currently forecast a decline to 3.1% in June), and employment growth weakening, there’s plenty of historical evidence to suggest that rate cuts may not be too far away.