US CPI Review: October 2023 & Flash November Forecast

Helped by falling car prices, CPI disinflation continued in October. While positive signs were seen in some services prices, MoM core services price growth remained above its historical average.

In October, headline CPI inflation fell from 3.7% to 3.2% YoY. This was below both my forecast (3.3%) and the consensus forecast (3.3%).

Core CPI inflation fell from 4.1% to 4.0% YoY, again, this was below both my forecast (4.2%) and the consensus forecast (4.1%).