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Marlon's avatar

as always super insightful!

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Steven Anastasiou's avatar

Thanks, Marlon!

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Stock Analysis Compilation's avatar

Thank you very much for this interesting article.

Are you worried about second-round effects?

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Steven Anastasiou's avatar

Thanks for reading!

As in what Fed tightening and lower price growth says about future economic activity?

Just as I believe that the Fed's significant tightening, which is leading to declines in the M2 money supply, will reduce inflation, I also believe that it significantly raises the risk of a recession.

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Stock Analysis Compilation's avatar

Thanks for your reply.

I was talking about a rebound in inflation due to persistently high wage growth.

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Steven Anastasiou's avatar

While there may be some MoM volatility, and it may take a significant additional length of time for the CPI to return to 2% YoY growth, as long as M2 remains constrained, I'm not concerned about a sustained rebound in inflation.

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