US Economic and Market Summary & Outlook

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Last updated: 5 July 2024

Report outline

  • Executive summary

  • Money supply, bank credit & liquidity

    • M2 begins to rise, but growth remains relatively constrained

    • Bank credit impacted by higher interest rates and QT, but it has returned to growth

    • Abundant liquidity and a large federal government deficit drives bank deposit growth, stimulating the economy and breaking the link to QT

    • While the RRP boost is getting closer to an end, a broadly favourable liquidity backdrop is expected in 2H24 — but will it be enough to materially boost the US economy?

  • GDP, personal spending and income

    • 1Q24 real final sales to domestic purchasers growth moderates as real PCE growth deceler…

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