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Medium-Term US Inflation Update: Broadening disinflation to pave the way for a significant rate cutting cycle
With the US CPI expected to see material 2H24 disinflation, a significant rate cutting cycle is forecast to begin in September — I expect three rate…
Jul 22
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Steven Anastasiou
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Medium-Term US Inflation Update: Broadening disinflation to pave the way for a significant rate cutting cycle
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US CPI Review: June 2024
June's CPI data showed material further disinflationary evidence. Importantly, adjusted core services prices again saw below average MoM growth, paving…
Jul 13
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Steven Anastasiou
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US CPI Review: June 2024
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US CPI Preview: June 2024
While there's an elevated level of uncertainty over services prices in June, I nevertheless expect another month of relatively modest CPI growth…
Jul 9
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Steven Anastasiou
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US CPI Preview: June 2024
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US jobs report points to the growing risk of a recession
June's employment data pointed to a significant further weakening of the US jobs market, with multiple 2H24 rate cuts looking increasingly likely.
Jul 6
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Steven Anastasiou
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US jobs report points to the growing risk of a recession
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Personal consumption growth has materially moderated, but private wage growth rebounds
While a major deceleration in real disposable income growth has now led to a significant slowdown in personal consumption growth, an increase in private…
Jul 1
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Steven Anastasiou
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Personal consumption growth has materially moderated, but private wage growth rebounds
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June 2024
May PCE Price Index Review: a significant move in the right direction
May's PCE Price Index data revealed a significant and widespread slowdown in MoM growth, with supercore PCE inflation returning to a YoY growth rate of…
Jun 29
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Steven Anastasiou
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May PCE Price Index Review: a significant move in the right direction
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Jobless claims: a concerning spike or just missed seasonality?
While a number of key employment market data points have shown a major weakening, a deeper look at the latest data suggests that jobless claims are not…
Jun 21
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Steven Anastasiou
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Jobless claims: a concerning spike or just missed seasonality?
www.economicsuncovered.com
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Unpacking the US Economy and Markets: a detailed review and outlook
At ~9,500 words, this update provides highly detailed insights into the current state and trajectory of the US economy, as well as the implications for…
Jun 20
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Steven Anastasiou
4
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Unpacking the US Economy and Markets: a detailed review and outlook
www.economicsuncovered.com
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US CPI Review: May 2024 (plus a Fed & PPI update)
Material CPI disinflation comes a month earlier than forecast, reinforcing my expectation for multiple 2H24 rate cuts.
Jun 14
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Steven Anastasiou
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US CPI Review: May 2024 (plus a Fed & PPI update)
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US CPI Preview: May 2024
May's CPI report is not expected to show major disinflation, with services prices expected to drive elevated monthly core CPI growth. Nevertheless, the…
Jun 11
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Steven Anastasiou
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US CPI Preview: May 2024
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The latest US jobs report is not as strong as it may seem
The stark divergence between the establishment survey and the household survey continued in May, with numerous factors suggesting that the jobs market…
Jun 8
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Steven Anastasiou
7
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The latest US jobs report is not as strong as it may seem
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Continued weakness in disposable income growth points to a material economic slowdown
The latest personal income and spending data pointed to a continued weakening in the US economy, reinforcing my current expectation for multiple 2H24…
Jun 3
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Steven Anastasiou
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Continued weakness in disposable income growth points to a material economic slowdown
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