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US economy enters a concerning phase as recessionary employment indicators continue to pile up
There's a strong argument to be made that the latest US jobs data is broadly recessionary, increasing pressure on the Fed to deliver a major reduction…
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Steven Anastasiou

August 2024

Major downward revision to US job growth emphasises weakening employment market
Adding to the list of concerns surrounding the strength of the US employment market, the BLS' preliminary benchmark revision delivered a large downward…
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Steven Anastasiou
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Retail sales, jobless claims, manufacturing data and the NAHB housing survey
A big slab of US economic data was released Thursday, with a mix of economic signals contained within the various data points.
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Steven Anastasiou
US CPI Review: July 2024
July's US CPI report revealed significant further disinflationary evidence, strengthening the case for a 50bp rate cut in September, in the event that…
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Steven Anastasiou
US CPI Preview: July 2024
While July's CPI report is expected to provide another batch of further disinflationary evidence, hard-landing concerns could spike in the event that…
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Steven Anastasiou
Why the latest US jobs report points to a recession and what it means for the Fed and financial markets
With the US jobs market weakening further, I have brought forward my expectations for when the US may enter a recession, with flow-on implications for…
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Steven Anastasiou
Fed sets the stage for a September rate cut as more job market data shows growing weakness
Changes to the Fed's FOMC statement and Fed Chair Powell's press conference have reinforced market expectations for a September rate cut, whilst the…
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Steven Anastasiou

July 2024

Key JOLTS indicators weaken further in June, raising recession concerns
A sharp drop in the hiring rate tops the list of concerns that arose from the latest JOLTS data, reinforcing that the key economic risk is that the US…
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Steven Anastasiou
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Weak disposable income growth continues to point to a major economic slowdown
While real US GDP growth was relatively solid in 2Q24, ongoing weakness in real disposable income growth points to a significant economic slowdown…
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Steven Anastasiou
June PCE inflation: deepening services disinflation paves the way for rate cuts
Broad based services disinflation saw 3-month annualised services price growth plunge to its lowest level since December 2020, highlighting how the…
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Steven Anastasiou
Medium-Term US Inflation Update: Broadening disinflation to pave the way for a significant rate cutting cycle
With the US CPI expected to see material 2H24 disinflation, a significant rate cutting cycle is forecast to begin in September — I expect three rate…
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Steven Anastasiou
US CPI Review: June 2024
June's CPI data showed material further disinflationary evidence. Importantly, adjusted core services prices again saw below average MoM growth, paving…
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Steven Anastasiou
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